Complex adaptive systems theory, to be specific.
The complexity of a system is a function of the number of inputs, the number of flow paths, and the scarcity of energy in the system.
A forest is not all that complex. A plain is even less so.
But tundras, deserts and jungles are teeming with all sorts of life ... all knifing each other in the back, because the conditions are austere and the raw amount of energy flow in the system is low.
We are now conducting the biggest social and economic experiment in the history of humanity. We are shutting down parts of the United States, but not others.
Two hypercities: San Francisco and New York. One, aggressive quarantine and social distancing. The other, business as usual for a few weeks longer.
The Big Apple's getting it in the shorts. The City That Never Sleeps is holding, for the moment.
Social distancing smashes small business, the economic engine and the lifeblood of our societies. It annihilates tourism and pours ball bearings into the turbine of our economy.
Unchecked spread of COVID-19 pours gasoline over our hospitals and sets them on fire. Overloaded beds mean that the next car wreck, you die; the next heart attack, you die; the next kid with anaphylaxis who should get a shot and live another fifty years, dies.
Both the people worried about COVID-19 and the people worried about our economy are utterly correct. Both disasters are entirely possible at the same time.
And don't forget our usual ones -- earthquake, wildfire, tornado, severe weather -- because they're in play too.
If you put too much pressure on a system, you don't get adaptation. You get collapse.
This is a human body. There are many like it, but this is the one we are talking about today.
Here is a bacterium. The body's natural defenses kill it. Yay.
Here are millions of bacteria. The body's natural defenses can't cope. The person goes and gets antibiotics. They do the trick, yay.
Bacteria, no antibiotics (or ineffective ones) ... the body tries to adapt, to use its natural defenses, and what you get is called 'septic shock.' Over a course of several hours, the body tries to heat up, compensate, handle its business -- and fails, with body chemistry imbalances, damage to organs, clinical shock and soon, irreversible death.
We are potentially giving our economy the biggest case of 'shock' we've ever seen or dreamed of, in the hopes of preventing a biological shock of either COVID-19 overwhelming our health care system, or the risk that it can mutate to high lethality and take our civilization down at the seams. 2-4% dead doesn't sound like much until you relfect that the average city can barely handle 1%. Now imagine 20-40% lethality with a mutation. The living would be unable to bury the dead.
The National Guard is the antibodies of our system. They are our most flexible resource.
Where are they?
At the food banks.
That's not good. That's a major warning sign that the food distribution system may break down.
Be afraid. Be very afraid. Then reject fear and let it turn to resolve.
The next three months are a literal fight for the survival of America. If we live, we can restore our civil liberties. But we do have to survive first, and that is now in utterly serious doubt.
What can you do to survive? Be prepared. Be ready for anything. Follow good preparedness guides. Don't hoard, but do stock up. Build your skills.
What can your organization do to survive? Same answer, bigger scale. If you do something essential, get really good at it and be ready to keep doing it no matter what you face. If you don't do something essential, stop fucking off and start doing something essential, right the hell now.
What will we need?
Hundreds of thousands of nurse's assistants, apprentice respiratory technicians and nurses practicing as doctors. (It is far too late to train the doctors, nurses and resp-techs we need... so we do what we can.)
Millions of janitors.
Not that many lawyers. Even fewer bankers. But some.
COVID-19 is going to punch a big hole in the emergency services community. Guards are going to have to keep civil order. Rideshare drivers are going to have to drive ambulances. Construction workers are going to have to be firefighters. And that again is if we are lucky.
The mental health crisis, if it were the only crisis we faced, is itself overwhelming. We have lost a lot of people and we're going to lose more.
This game is going into extra innings. Don't change that dial, don't give up that seat, and whatever you do, hang on to that popcorn. Ain't seen nothing yet.
If you think I'm being alarmist, think about what i said last month.
Now realize that my crystal ball is a second-hand war surplus model with calibration issues. I've been wrong before, and I hope I'll be wrong again.
I am a creature of civilization. I will not do well in a post-system world, and I know it. Too many people have the fantasy of a simpler time, or a Big Igloo, or some other lunatic fringe idea. The reality is Sally dying because you couldn't get her insulin, or Bobby dying because of an impacted tooth that rotted out, or hanging judges made of the worst gossips in your town dealing out what little justice there is - and you being thankful for it.
If our individual lives are worth defending, and they are, how much more so our body politic, our society, our way of life and our civilization?
Pray make thee ready.
